Week 3 Sunday Options

So... Thursday night, around 6:30ish, the Falcons announced Roddy White would not play, and the Bucs announced that Doug Martin would not suit up. This created a market deficiency for the Thursday night games, because only the most avid players are constantly adjusting lineups up to the final hour for Thursday night dailies - and usually people love using tons of TNF players as is. Generally I fade the TNF games because they are usually lower scoring, weaker QB play and a lot of defensive variance type stuff because of the short week.

However, you simply can't fade Julio Jones for $7700 versus a pretty meh (which we learned was more than meh and simply fucking horrid) defense, with Roddy White out. Roddy and Julio both consistently hurt each others value because they are both good at football. Julio is better at football, obviously - but Roddy ain't too bad himself. We also heard that Jake Matthews was going to be back, and Matt Ryan's blindside would be secure again (anyone remember him going lights out and ending QB1 in week 1?). So I ran to Draftkings, and loaded up 124238 TNF lineups with Bobby Rainey and Julio Jones - both wayyyy too cheap for what they should've been since both were expected to be sharing play time with Roddy/Dougie. I actually only loaded up 22 lineups, but I would say that so far it has looked pretty good. Julio scored like 376 points or something and Bobby Rainey even though he played like total doodoo, put up like 15 PPR points which isn't too bad for his price.

Sooooo back to this weekend. I want to take a look at the vegas lines to figure out who to target. Vegas is smart - just don't even argue against it. So we can determine what vegas projects each team to score by doing just a little bit of math. Vegas sets an over/under - where they make a prediction/projection about how many points will be scored in a particular game Such as this weekend, the over/under for the Saints Vikings game is anywhere from 48.5-50 from what I have seen (it has been going up and down since the whole AP beating his kid stuff). Now the Saints are favored by 10 or 11 from what I have seen, which is when you see "Saints -11." Now this means the Saints must score 11 more points than the Vikings for you to win a bet on the Saints to win. So what we do, we take the 49 points, and we subtract their "line" from the total (-11) and we are left with 60 points. We then divide that by 2, and we are left with a projection of 30 points scored from the Saints. Now this projection varies anywhere from 28-32 from what I have seen on the interwebz. Either way, that is a fuck ton of points.

The highest projected totals I have seen,

Saints - 30
Patriots - 29
Eagles - 28
Lions - 27
Seahawks - 26
Colts - 26
Bengals - 25
Packers - 25

These are all formidable totals, which means you want players from these teams on your roster. My initial reactions - Khiry Robinson and Ahmad Bradshaw are INSANEEEEE values. If the Saints are projected for 30, brees is at home, they will be getting into the red zone a lot. That means Khiry will be getting goal line work. Ingram had (I think... don't quote me) the most carries inside the 5 to start this season... something like 7 carries, and he ended up with 3 TDs. Saints want to run the ball in the red zone, and Khiry is more than reasonable as a replacement for ingram and he is ridiculous cheap on Draftkings.

And everyone knows how I feel about Bradshaw - plug him in, set it and forget it.

Ridley is a decent tournament option because the Raiders are missing two starting linebackers and their DLine is older and less mobile than Joan Rivers (too soon?). However, Ridley always has a scary floor because is one fumble from riding the pine for all of eternity. Or ending up in a pine coffin, idk but Belichick wants him dead a lot.

Jeremy Hill and Gio are both meh options because they really hurt each others value. Although in Tourneys they both hve value because Gio is a PPR stud and Hill is a cheap option who should start getting more and more GL carries as we go forward.

The Pack? Lacy is up against a ridiculously talented front 4 - do not start him. Jordy? All systems go that man is a freak, I love him and Marshall as the top WR options this week. Not a fan of Cobb this week. His red zone target share is not sustainable because he is going to begin regressing as Rodgers targets the taller Jordy and Dvante Adams more as we go forward. Davante is a nice tournament option because he is dirt cheap and he seems like he has taken over for Jarrett Mehhhhhkin.

Colts receivers? Always better tourney options than 50/50 options because you really have 0 clue who is going to be the target hog any given week.

Seahawks - I really don't like paying for their skill position players because it is another team that is spreading the wealth. Lynch seems safe here, but it could turn into a shoot out and he may lose looks to Turbin - I prefer the cheaper RB options this week. I like Russell Wilson however this week... Seeing their projected score from Vegas has really made me decide to create a lineup using Russ to score some QB value - WISH ME LUCK GUYS.

Eagles - I love Zach Ertz this week. He is really turning into a stud right before our eyes and people are barely talking about him. After week 2, only 2 guys had 6 catches of 20 plus yards. Ertz, and Julio Jones - that is nice company. He is also one of the few guys on the team who can catch Foles' terribly aimed passes. Plus this game is supposed to be high scoring and Ertz is fairly cheap this week compared to the top TE options. He is always a bet for like 6-10 targets, 4-8 catches and a TD. I like that floor/ceiling in my TE position for tourneys and 50s. And Foles... he is a pretty good option this week. Plenty of solid QB looks for this week.

Lions - I always fade their RBs for 50s because you never know who is going to have the big game, but they are nice tourney options. Calvin is always a really good option, but he is $500 more than Jordy or BMarsh, so I prefer those guys. But Stafford is probably my favorite QB option this week. This game should be a shoot-out.

Patriots - I kinda like Tom BRady this week, but I know he will break my heart cuz he sucks now.  Edelman may be my favoriteeee WR option this week. $6000 and he is a huge PPR stud, he should see his normal like 8 catches for 18 yards kind of stat line and still end up with 10-15 points, and if he scores a TD he will push for 20. Gronk is a good bet for a TD, but I would continue to fade him until he shows us that he is awesome and healthy again.

Aj Green may be a good option as well, he was not expected to play this weekend, so I think he is priced accordingly but I can't remember for sure. However I am always iffy to start guys who have injuries like his. The toe/feet stuff is always iffy because you never know when it will flare up and he could end up being a decoy or make one catch and end up hurt. I would say he is a much better value for tourneys. As for Andy Dalton? I will probably never start him for anything other than a tourney because you have no idea if he is going to be the red rocket or the red fucking idiot and do something stupid.

Questions? Find me on twitter - superduperman22, or shoot me an email - Johnnyp576@gmail.com

GOOD LUCK GUYS

Edit - Totally forgot about Donald Brown - he is super cheap and the Chargers run a super boring run the ball 1234901 times offense. Brown will carry the load and he should be a serviceable start at RB for his insane price. Using Donald Brown, Khiry Robinson and Ahmad Bradshaw at RB1, RB2 and Flex lets you toss two stud WRs like Calvin and Jordy into WR1/2.

Also give Larry Donnell a look at TE, he doesn't make Eli do the manning face when he throws him the ball cuz he actually catches it.

Eli when he throws to Cruz -

You get the point... 

Week 3 - Early Thoughts

Mo' Fuckin' Bradshaw - Why is he $4,800 on DraftKings? Knile Davis is $62,500 as DK is running to the waiver wire faster than everyone on twitter - and yet they forgot to price correct Bradshaw.

Long story short, he should be started at RB or flex in every single draft kings lineup in the world - Unless he gets hurt, he will pay for this price tag.

Edelman - Since Draftkings is PPR, Edelman seems like a pretty awesome play this week for his $6,000 tag. Granted his final stat line will be something like 17 catches for 36 yards, that is still like a bajillion points in PPR. C'mon, he plays the raiders - Charles Woodson hasn't been able to cover since like 1993, and I couldn't even name a starting corner on that team. And they are starting HGH testing, so Tyvon Branch may be suspended by the weekend. I kid, I kid... But seriously, if they don't test Vernon Davis, Tyvon Branch and Laron Landry "randomly" first, then this new agreement was a failure.

Moving right along... Keenan Allen ($6000) falls into that same category as Edelman this week I think? He has had TERRIBLE matchups the last two weeks and still has been pretty heavily targeted by Rivers. He has sick open field moves, and he HAS to score a TD here soon - he was a pretty powerful red zone target last year. They play the Bills, which are mildly underrated - but he played 2 corners the last 2 weeks who are easily better than anyone on the Bills roster.

Brandon Marshall / Jordy Nelson - $8300 / $8400 - If I am paying for a big name this week, it is going to be one of these two. Cutty gets to throw across his body while smoking a cigarette against the Jets this week

, and not even Cutler's poor decisions can lead to an interception against this amazingly awesome at being terrible secondary. Alshon is limited, and the bromance is real - BMarsh should be heavily targeted and is a solid bet for a few RZ targets. Jordy is awesome at football, and awesome at being underrated because he is white. Rodgers has been heavily targeting him over the last 2 weeks and I would rather pay 8400 for him than 8900 for Calvin. Sure Calvin is awesome but Stafford is back to being... well this guy

I really like Knile Davis, but I am probably fading him this weekend because Charles may be back, the Chiefs are bad - like REALLLLLY bad. And his value is already priced in, $6200 is pretty expensive for a backup (albeit he is good) who has fumbling issues, and injury concerns of his own. I would rather toss in Bradshaw, Donald Brown (3500) or Khiry Robinson (3800) and stack up some ridiculous WRs.... But hey I might toss together a lineup with Knile in it too.

I will post a few lineups on Friday if anyone wants to steal them

And here is a screenshot of last weeks contests

And note the fleaflicker tourney where I finished 4605 and it paid 4600, I started Carson Palmer at QB - he played really well and all. Oh that wasn't him? Drew Stanton? Who the fuck is that? Anyway, here were my results

My First Week - NFL Week 2

Hey guys,

So last year I dabbled into DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports) (or technically weekly when it comes to NFL, but I digress). I played off and on, using various sites such as Fanduel, Draft Street - and a few other ones that I don't really remember. I did pretty well on Fanduel for awhile, turning $25 or so into something like $150-200, but then I started entering into higher stakes tournaments and essentially blew it all.

I am mostly obsessed with the NFL. And I can't get enough of fantasy football. So this year I have decided to make an actual effort to try and "beat" daily fantasy games. I deposited $50 into Draft Kings (they are offering a bonus on top of that, like $25 or $50 that I can earn as I play - not exactly sure how it works) and they transferred my remaining few dollars from Draft Street which they obtained in a merger. So in rounding up a few pennies, I am starting with $60.

If you don't know how daily fantasy works, you draft a team based on a salary cap - and the individual players cost a certain amount of money based on how Draft Kings projects their value. For example a QB like Peyton Manning will usually be very expensive toward your total cap, and a QB like Matt Cassel will be very cheap. Sometimes there are "values" at QB that experts preach all week, such as Jake Locker last week (if anyone watched that game, they see how that worked out).

So I entered into 22 Daily Fantasy games on DraftKings for the NFL week 2, and here were my results.

21 of these tournaments were called 50/50s - such the top 50% scorers in the game will earn "double" their money. However DraftKings takes a rake for running these games, therefore if I enter into a $1 50/50 - I would receive $1.80 back, as they take a 10% rake from each player for these low limit games (I think the rake gets smaller as the stakes increase). I entered into 21 $1 tournaments using 2 lineups and I cashed in every single one.

My first lineup looked like this

QB - Jake Locker
RB - Montee Ball
RB - Ahmad Bradshaw
WR - Demaryius Thomas
WR - Jordy Nelson
WR - TY Hilton
TE - Marty Bennett
Flex - Terrance West
Def - Broncos

The Jake Locker pick I wish I had back, it was actually me scrambling to replace 9 lineups that had Carson Palmer in them who was announced out last minute (I actually left him in my single tournament lineup because I am an idiot, and would have cashed for something like $50 had I remembered to fix that lineup).

The Montee Ball pick seemed a lot better at the time, but it just seems as though he really isn't all that good.
Bradshaw - running like a demon, hopefully he will continue to be a value

As for the rest - I prefer to pick players that are playing for high powered offenses that are projected to score points. Seems simple right? Well not to most... People are constantly aiming to pick cheap "breakout" players for each week in order to allow them to save money and play the top players at other positions. Notice I didn't start Peyton, or Calvin, or any of the top few running backs - You just don't need them.

Jordy Nelson was my number 1 target for last week, he is a total stud, rodgers is a total stud, and the jets secondary is the opposite of that word. He shredded them. Demaryius was at a discount because of his dropsies last week, and any time Demaryius, Julio, Jordy or Calvin are at a discount - they will be in my lineups. (Downgrade them a bit if they have a tough matchup against a really good secondary).

My other lineup (12 entries in 50/50s) - which I wish I entered into like 124253234 tournaments was as follows

QB - Aaron Rodgers
RB - Montee Ball
RB - Ahmad Bradshaw
WR - Jordy Nelson
WR - Demaryius Thomas
WR - Michael Floyd
TE - Delanie Walker
Flex - Terrance West
D/ST - Patriots

I was all in on the Patriots D for the most part last week, the vikings are terrible and the Patriots players are insanely fast (the loss of Jamie Collins was a big blow, but they are still a fast unit and had a million ops for turnovers which they capitalized).

Again, I wish I couldve swapped Montee Ball for Gio Bernard, I don't imagine I will be starting Montee Ball again this season because he will continue to be too expensive for his mediocre production. He is a fatboy who bumbles forward, and he has pretty much looked like he is getting out played by CJ Anderson.

The Floyd pick was something I didn't get corrected fast enough - Palmer being announced out late sucked. Floyd was a huge value if Palmer had played, but all in all this will just continue to push his value down as Drew Stanton continues to toss ducks toward his awesome receivers.

Cowboys can't cover the TE - Delanie was a value. And Terrance West was a starting RB for a pretty solid run blocking unit who was a super value since he is a "backup."


Lessons learned - don't skimp on QB. People like Jake Locker will burn you more often than not... Jake Locker is just bad, idk why I did that...
Don't start Montee Ball - just don't.
Look for top wideout targets who are good at football, who have QBs who are good at football who are listed at a discount because of a down game or a "bad" matchup or something like that.
Also look at the top scoring vegas games - GB was set to score 5 bajillion points last week and Denver was set to score 6 bajillion (they didnt cuz Peyton is bad lol jk but seriously regression), so I targeted Jordy Demaryius and Rodgers in most of my games because they came at discounts versus the top options at their position (I think Rodgers was the 5th or 6th most expensive and Jordy and Demaryius were down a few spots as well).

All in all, I entered into 22, cashed in 21 and came out positive $12 - new balance is at $71.80 - and it would be much higher had I not boinked my $5 tournament entry by starting an injured QB (I missed the cash by 5 placed, I finished 4605th and $10 went to 4600).

I am going to be hawking over the prices for players on Draft Kings this week and release a little bit of info on Friday as to who I will be starting.